Vía El Blog de Enrique Dans encontré un artículo interesantísimo (y muy divertido). En It’s Deja Vu All Over Again, Robert X. Cringely encuentra notorias similitudes entre la situación que enfrenta Microsoft con relación a Google y aquella de fines de 1995, cuando Netscape se perfilaba como la “bestia negra” del “Gigante de Redmond” (¡qué poético estoy hoy!):

And the set-up IS similar. Microsoft, fat and complacent, was caught up in its own internal technical bickering and unable for several years to release a new version of Windows. Meanwhile, Open Source Internet technologies moved forward and broadband became, if not ubiquitous, at least the norm. While folks in Redmond argued over what new features to put in Windows and Office, those very features became available in the form of web services. Now all it takes is a powerful integrator to put everything together in a package that isn’t monolithic in the sense that Windows is, but just works well together. Google is that most likely integrator.

Sin embargo, Cringely también sostiene que el escenario muestra algunas diferencias con respecto al de 1995:

What scares Microsoft about Google is its lack of clear advantage over the younger company. Microsoft has always counted on market share, money, and muscle. Windows market share remains immense, but Google services transcend operating systems, making it impossible for Microsoft to compete with Google the way they did with Digital Research’s CP/M, IBM’s OS/2, or Novell’s Netware. Microsoft has plenty of money, sure, but so does Google. Google may have less than Microsoft, but they have enough to do whatever they choose to do, and Wall Street has shown it will give Google more money anytime. As for muscle, Google matches or exceeds Microsoft brain-for-brain, and has the same kind of outsized corporate persona Microsoft has, though minus the bad-guy image of a monopolist bully.

Cringely, en el “grand finale” de su artículo, profetiza:

[...] We’re about to see two waves of technical change over the next three to four years that will completely change the landscape of computing. Microsoft will spend whatever it takes to retain control, which could mean ANYTHING. Seriously, ANYTHING. Windows for free? Don’t be surprised if it happens.

Vale la pena leerlo completo. Después, no digan que no estaban avisados.